Farmers, Bandits and Soldiers: A Generic System for Addressing Peace Agendas

PIs: Khalid Saeed (WPI), Oleg Pavlov (WPI), Jeanine Skorinko (WPI), and Alexander Smith (WPI)

We propose a generic model that explains why political systems tend toward certain outcomes. The model identifies possible economic and psychological paths toward change in a metaphorical political economy consisting of farmers, bandits and soldiers. In addition to economic factors, we also consider how two psychological factors, broadly categorized as group identity and exposure to violence, affect the behavior of metaphorical agents. We find that though outcomes tend to be similar with and without the psychological influences, the psychological influences accelerate the adjustment process and create additional policy space for interventions. A methodological contribution of the paper also is the use of summary performance measures represented as phase plots that have the potential to be used with advantage in system dynamics analyses.

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Unsanctioned Music Sharing on Peer-to-Peer Networks

A new technology in the early 2000s, peer-to-peer (P2P) networks made massive unsanctioned music exchange possible, which had a profound effect on the recording industry. Record labels responded to the emergence of online music-sharing networks with litigation and “self-help measures.” This project adds to our understanding of the conflict within the commercial music industry. We conduct an institutional analysis of the conflict by extending pattern modeling with a formal resource-based model of a representative P2P network. To build the model, we use the system dynamics methodology. The model accounts for complex causal interactions between resources such as bandwidth and music files, private provision of common goods, free-riding, and membership dynamics. In a series of experiments that emulate the offensive against music-sharing networks, our analysis shows that due to the feedback effects, P2P systems might be quite resilient to outside attempts to disrupt them through technical or legal means. The experiments also demonstrate that policies against unsanctioned music exchanges on P2P networks rank differently in their effectiveness based on a selected yardstick.

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